Description

1. Current Climate
   Historical measurements from the past 10 years were used to establish the baseline climate conditions for the region. This data includes meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, and winds. These, together with Digital Elevation Maps and satellite imagery, have been run through climate detection models to detect extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods.
   
   
2. IPCC RCP 4.5
   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario was used to project future climate conditions for the region. This scenario represents a moderate mitigation pathway that aims to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere by 2100. The RCP 4.5 scenario assumes that global emissions peak around 2040 and then decline, leading to a stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m² by 2100. This scenario not only considers the physical impacts of climate change but also incorporates mitigation strategies aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations, as detailed in both the IPCC AR6 Working Group I and Working Group III reports. [1] [2]
   CMIP6 models, specifically EC-Earth3-CC, were used to project future climate conditions under the RCP 4.5 scenario, using data from now till 2100. The models were run for the region to project future temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological parameters. These parameters were then run through EarthCare.ai climate models to detect extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. The results were then used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the infrastructure project.
   
   
3. IPCC RCP 8.5
   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario was used to project future climate conditions for the region. This scenario represents a high-emission pathway that assumes no climate mitigation measures are taken, leading to a continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions throughout the 21st century. The RCP 8.5 scenario results in a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100, which leads to a significant increase in global temperatures and more severe climate impacts. This high-emission scenario primarily focuses on the physical impacts of climate change under a trajectory where no significant mitigation measures are undertaken, as discussed in the IPCC AR6 Working Group I report. [1]
   
   

RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 represent two different climate futures when compared to the current climate. RCP 4.5 is considered a moderate risk scenario, where emissions peak mid-century before declining, leading to a gradual warming trajectory of approximately 1.8–2.6°C by 2100. While this still surpasses pre-industrial temperatures, it allows for adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce extreme climate risks. On the other hand, RCP 8.5 is often viewed as a worst-case scenario, assuming unchecked emissions growth, leading to 3.2–5.4°C of warming by 2100. Compared to the current climate, RCP 8.5 presents catastrophic risks, including more frequent extreme heat events, severe weather, and rising sea levels, making it a significantly higher threat to ecosystems, human health, and infrastructure. While RCP 4.5 is still a challenge, it is valued as a more manageable and policy-driven future compared to the unchecked trajectory of RCP 8.5.

For each IPCC scenario, the following meteorological data was used in combination with climate models

• Temperature (minimum, maximum, average)
• Solar Radiation (short/long wave)
• Heat Flux (latent, sensible)
• Sea Ice (area, thickness, mass)
• Sea Surface Salinity
• Snow Depth
• Snowfall
• Air Pressure (surface/sea level)
• Wind Speed
• Wind Gusts
• Precipitation
• Total Runoff
• Dew Point
• Humidity
• Evapotranspiration
• Soil Moisture
• Geopotential Height
• Hisotircal Earthquakes
• Digital Elevation Maps
• Vegetation Maps
• Cloud Coverage
• Sea Surface Temperature

Description
The sensitivity analysis focuses on evaluating how sensitive various components of the , as defined in the preliminary design, are to different climate hazards. This analysis identifies and assesses potential climate stressors—such as temperature rise, changes in precipitation, or extreme weather events—and examines how these hazards may affect the performance of specific infrastructure elements. The goal is to understand which components are more susceptible to climate impacts and to what extent these impacts could disrupt operations or functionality.

Results

Group	Subgroup	Threat	Assets	Input	Output	Access	SENSITIVITY

Legend	Low	Medium	High

Description
Exposure analysis assesses the degree to which the infrastructure project is exposed to climate hazards at its specific location. This process involves identifying the local climate conditions and considering future climate projections to determine how likely the project is to encounter adverse climatic events, such as flooding, droughts, or heatwaves. By evaluating the intensity, frequency, and geographical scope of these hazards, exposure analysis helps to pinpoint areas of higher risk and determines which climate hazards could directly impact the project during its lifecycle.

Results

Group	Subgroup	Threat	Current Climate	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5	EXPOSURE

Legend	Low	Medium	High

Description
Vulnerability analysis integrates the results of sensitivity and exposure assessments to determine the overall vulnerability of the infrastructure project. This section will explore how to assess the combination of both the project’s sensitivity to climate hazards and its exposure to those hazards. The vulnerability analysis identifies critical risk areas where climate change could have severe impacts on project performance and operations. It also includes guidance on how to evaluate adaptation options to mitigate these risks. The outcome of this analysis helps to prioritize which climate hazards require urgent attention and informs decision-making around the implementation of climate-resilient measures.

Results

Group	Subgroup	Threat	VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability Matrix

Sensitivity (highest across the four themes)	Exposure (current + future climate)
	High	Medium	Low
High	Flood
Medium		Heat
Low			Drought

Legend	Low	Medium	High

Description
The likelihood analysis evaluates the probability of climate hazards affecting a specific location under different climate scenarios. It calculates the likelihood by determining the number of months in which a specific hazard occurs and dividing this by the total number of months in the dataset. This fraction is then converted into a percentage, providing a clear measure of how frequently the hazard is expected to occur. By categorizing threats based on their likelihood, the analysis helps prioritize risk management and inform adaptation strategies, enabling proactive decision-making in plant design and operations.

Group	Subgroup	Threat	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5

Legend	Rare	Unlikely	Moderate	Likely	Almost Certain

Description
The impact analysis evaluates the potential consequences of climate hazards on various risk areas, including asset damage, safety and health, environmental and cultural heritage, social factors, financial stability, and reputation. Using a scale from insignificant to catastrophic, this assessment provides an expert evaluation of the severity of impacts across these domains. The analysis helps identify the most critical vulnerabilities, supporting effective risk mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against climate-related threats.

Group	Subgroup	Threat	Asset Damage	Safety and Health	Environment	Cultural Heritage	Social	Financial	Reputation	Overall

Legend	Insignificant	Minor	Moderate	Major	Catastrophic

Description
The risk assessment table integrates the likelihood and impact of climate hazards to determine overall risk levels. By categorizing hazards from low to extreme risk, this evaluation helps identify the most significant threats. The table supports decision-making by highlighting vulnerabilities that require mitigation, ensuring effective adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against climate-related risks.

Group	Subgroup	Threat	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5

Risk Assessment Matrix

Likelihood	Overall impact of the essential climate variables and hazards (example)
	Insignificant	Minor	Moderate	Major	Catastrophic

Legend	Low	Medium	High	Extreme

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RCP 4.5: A Middle-of-the-Road Climate Scenario

RCP 4.5 is widely regarded as a "middle-of-the-road" scenario because it represents a balanced pathway between aggressive mitigation (RCP 2.6) and unchecked emissions growth (RCP 8.5). This scenario assumes moderate policy interventions, where global greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and then gradually decline due to technological advancements, energy transitions, and policy actions.

Unlike extreme low or high scenarios, RCP 4.5 reflects a future where some climate mitigation efforts are implemented, but reliance on fossil fuels and emissions reductions are not as aggressive as in more ambitious pathways. Scientifically, this makes RCP 4.5 applicable for risk assessments, as it aligns with current policy trends and reflects a plausible trajectory under existing international climate commitments.

It allows researchers and decision-makers to evaluate potential climate impacts in a world where mitigation efforts are present but not fully maximized, making it a practical and realistic basis for adaptation planning.

• Copernicus Climate Change Service
• Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
• Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service
• Copernicus Land Monitoring Service
• CMIP6 Projection Models
• National Risk Assessments
• Tessa Digital Elevation Map